Ontario Fiscal Update to Focus on Infrastructure and Jobs Amid University Funding Crisis

Ontario is set to table its fall fiscal update on Thursday, with key themes expected to center on infrastructure investment and job protection, while mounting pressure grows for the province to increase post-secondary funding in response to federal student visa cuts.

Focus on Jobs and Economic Stability

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy criticized Ottawa’s new fiscal plan as “lacking ambition,” particularly on infrastructure and shielding workers from U.S. tariffs.

“People are asking me, ‘What’s in the budget for Oshawa? What’s in it for Windsor if you’re out of a job or facing layoffs in the auto sector?’ — and frankly, there isn’t much there,”
Bethlenfalvy told reporters Wednesday.

The update — often seen as a “mini budget” — will likely emphasize protecting employment and maintaining economic resilience.

Pre-announced measures include:

• HST rebates for first-time homebuyers;

• $1.1 billion for home-care expansion;

• Election law changes, including removing fixed election dates and raising the donation limit to $5,000.

These are expected to be formally introduced in Thursday’s economic statement bill.

Calls for More University and College Funding

Critics and post-secondary leaders are urging the province to invest more in higher education, after the federal government’s budget announcement halved the number of student visas to about 150,000.

Ontario’s colleges and universities have become increasingly reliant on international student tuition since a tuition freeze in 2019, amid years of stagnant public funding.

While the province pledged $1.3 billion over three years last year and an additional $750 million to fund 20,000 STEM program seats, many institutions say that’s “not nearly enough.”

Colleges and Universities Minister Nolan Quinn said Wednesday that the funding formula is under review but declined to commit to new spending.

“The federal government’s unilateral decision on international student caps has caused chaos across the province and country,” Quinn said.

Post-Secondary Sector Warns of Financial Crisis

Colleges Ontario said the new visa reductions mean a 73% drop in international student numbers since 2023, potentially cutting $2.5 billion in tuition revenue.
The organization noted that Ontario colleges have already cut $1.8 billion in costs, suspended 600 programs, and eliminated 8,000 positions.

“This further destabilizes Ontario’s colleges and the communities they serve,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, the Council of Ontario Universities reported that universities have lost $1 billion in revenue and are now “at a breaking point.”
President Steve Orsini warned that universities project $265 million in deficits for 2025–26, with larger shortfalls ahead.

“To protect and grow Ontario’s economy, the government must ensure universities have sustainable funding,” Orsini said.

Finances Show Signs of Improvement

Despite the fiscal pressures, Ontario’s books are improving.
Earlier this year, the province projected a $14.6 billion deficit for 2024–25, but last year ended with a $1.1 billion shortfall — far below the $9.8 billion initially forecast.

Bethlenfalvy also highlighted Ontario’s lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in a decade and declining debt servicing costs, suggesting fiscal health is “on a positive trajectory.”

“We will update our numbers tomorrow through the fall economic statement,” he said.